SINGAPORE, Oct 28, 2008 (AFP) - Singapore's economy, which is already in a technical recession, will remain weak in 2009 on projections the global economic outlook will deteriorate further, the central bank said Tuesday.
As a financial crisis evolves to impact economic activity worldwide, the city-state is likely to be hammered given its heavy exposure to external demand, the Monetary Authority (MAS) said in its Macro Economic Review.
"Looking ahead, the outlook for the global economy has deteriorated amidst heightened risk aversion and deleveraging in the financial sector," MAS said.
As a small and open trading economy, Singapore is vulnerable to any downturn in its major export markets such as the United States, Europe, China, India and Japan.
"The risks to external demand conditions continue to be on the downside, and a more severe global slowdown cannot be discounted," the MAS warned.
"Taking all these factors into account GDP growth is expected to be around 3.0 percent in 2008, and the economy will continue to grow below its potential rate into 2009," the MAS said.
Prospects for a recovery late next year hinge on the performance of key global economies, it said.
Singapore this month cut its economic growth forecast for 2008 to 3.0 percent from between 4.0 and 5.0 percent after the economy slipped into a technical recession, described as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 6.3 percent in the third quarter after contracting 5.7 percent in the previous quarter, according to preliminary government data.
The MAS said Singapore's financial sector will suffer from a direct impact, while weakening consumer sentiment will affect retail trade and the property market.
Other segments of the econonomy like manufacturing and tourism will suffer from falling external demand, it said.
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Quoted from Yahoo!
SINGAPORE, Oct 28 - Singapore's economy will grow below a potential rate of 4-6 percent in 2009 as the impact from a global financial crisis spreads across the whole economy and drags on previously resilient sectors such as manufacturing, the central bank said.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore said in its twice-yearly macroeconomic review report on Tuesday that the risks faced by Singapore's trade-dependent economy had shifted to slowing growth from rising prices, because the economic downturn has helped tame inflation.
It said it was ready to dampen excess volatility in Singapore's nominal effective exchange rate band, which it uses to set monetary policy by adjusting the strength of the Singapore dollar
It said it had also temporarily increased the level of liquidity in the banking system.
"Growth will likely remain below trend in 2009," the central bank said on Tuesday. "Concomitantly, external and domestic inflationary pressures are likely to ease."
The government has said previously that the potential trend growth in the medium term is between 4 to 6 percent.
The central bank said prospects of Singapore's economy recovering in the latter half of 2009 will depend significantly on growth in the United States, Europe, Japan, and other regional economies.
Singapore's economy fell into a recession in the July-to-September period, the country's first recession since 2002, as manufacturing activity and exports slumped.
The central bank said Singapore's economy is expected to grow about 3 percent this year, with inflation hitting 6-7 percent in 2008 before easing to between 2.5-3.5 percent in 2009.
However, the central bank warned it will take time for the decline in prices to be reflected in the consumer price index.
"Headline inflation rates could be sticky downwards for a while as the prices of some goods and services continue to react to past increases," it said.
The central bank said Singapore's economy appeared to be experiencing the "second phase of the impact from global shocks".
"There are emerging signs that the adverse effects had spread from the vulnerable industries to segments that had previously been considered relatively resilient."
The recession prompted Singapore's central bank to ease monetary policy in October for the first time since 2003.
The central bank said on Tuesday it loosened policy in October because of "dissipating inflationary pressures and increased downside risks to growth".